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Hurricanes

Hurricane Facts vs Climate Fiction

This article by Brian Sussman originally appeared at American Thinker

Following two back-to-back hurricanes that severely pummeled the Southeastern United States, climate activists have swooped in like vultures, blaming political conservatives for the destruction wrought by Helene and Milton. At MSNBC, Chris Hayes spouts, “We have known for decades that our planet is warming and that we would start seeing the brutal effects. But conservatives remain so deep in their denial that they are flailing around for anyone or anything else to blame.”

While many attempt to falsely connect hurricanes to anthropogenic climate change, the truth is these monster storms are a natural and necessary function of our planet’s atmosphere. But that didn’t prevent CNN from posting a piece wildly declaring, “Helene was supercharged by ultra-warm water made up to 500 times more likely by global warming.”

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean traditionally begins on June 1, as the waters near the equator warm generally have warmed to near 80 degrees Fahrenheit, the minimum temperature required for a hurricane to form. Water temperature is often considered the fuel for a hurricane because as the warm water evaporates it subsequently condenses within the storm releasing latent heat. However, there are a multitude of other factors that must be present for hurricane formation including a storm’s distance from the equator, light winds blowing into the center of the storm, high humidity values, and something we refer to as the “saturated adiabatic lapse rate” which is basically the rate at which saturated air cools with altitude. When all of these ingredients are in perfect sync, a hurricane begins to form.

Dr. Neil Frank, longtime head of the National Hurricane Center, contends the total number hurricanes each year ebbs and flows in sixty-year cycles. On the average, each year there are ten tropical storms (wind speeds less than 74-mph) that develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Six of these storms become hurricanes (wind speeds of 74-mph or more).  In an average 3-year period, roughly five hurricanes strike the United States coastline, killing approximately 50 to 100 people anywhere from Texas to Maine. Of these, two are typically major hurricanes (winds greater than 110 mph).

The cover endorsement for my recent book, Climate Cult: Exposing and Defeating Their War on Life, Liberty and Property, was written by Dr. Frank. He contends there is no evidence suggesting we are seeing more hurricanes than ever (over the past 170 years of records), and he insists the frequency and intensity of hurricanes has not changed over years.  Additionally, Dr. Frank reminds us that hurricanes are a beneficial component of the overall global atmosphere as they act as mechanisms which draw hot air from the earth’s equatorial regions into the jet stream which then transports the natural warmth to the colder latitudes. This allows for expansive and comfortable temperate zones, where most of us live.

But why do recent storms seem worse than ever?

The answer is threefold.

First, there is no doubt property damage, in terms of dollars, is on the rise. This trend is driven by the continued development of expensive property along the coasts putting more value at risk of wind and water damage. Also, flooding has increased due to residential and commercial properties edging right up to the water’s edge. Under these modern circumstances, any given hurricane would cause more damage than it would have in the past. Sadly, the same could be said for the number of lives lost during these storms.

Second is media coverage. Back when I was presenting the weather for both CBS-TV News and KPIX-TV in San Francisco, content producers knew severe weather gains eyeballs. It’s still true on TV today.

Third, there is the ad nauseam, agenda driven propaganda put forth by activists attempting to pin their climate fiction hoax on deadly hurricanes.  

But why is Florida seemingly often in the crosshairs?

Because the “Sunshine State” is a sitting duck. It’s a 500-mile long, 160-mile-wide peninsula extending into the warm waters of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico with 1,146 miles of coastline and an average elevation of a mere 100-feet. Given that the average hurricane is about 300-miles-wide, the Florida peninsula is a prime target for potential disaster. As a result, during this 2024 season, of the nine hurricanes formed to date, four have hit the United States with two terribly striking Florida.

Hurricane Godfather Puts Record Hurricane Forecast Into Perspective

This article was originally posted at American Thinker.

The 2024 hurricane season is forecast to be a record-breaker and climate provocateurs are crowing that it’s all your fault. Your carbon-intense lifestyle is warming the global atmosphere and now the biggest storms on earth are about to intensify and wreak havoc.

A prime example was heard last week on National Public Radio’s Shortwave Podcast. An NPR “climate desk” correspondent stated, “…human-caused climate change is driving up temperatures around the world, not just on land—like so many of us are experiencing firsthand this week—but in the ocean, where the hurricanes form.”

Total junk-science.

The cover endorsement for my new book Climate Cult: Exposing and Defeating Their War on Life, Liberty, and Property is from the former director of the National Hurricane Center, Dr. Neil Frank.  At 93-years young he remains sharp as a tack and stays abreast of the latest atmospheric news. He is a meteorologist’s meteorologist.

I called Dr. Frank to get his take on the 2024 forecast which was issued by the hurricane forecasting unit at Colorado State University. CSU has been presenting these predictions for nearly 40-years, based on a formula created by Professor William “Bill” Gray.  Professor Gray (now deceased) was one of Neil’s best friends and was a regular guest on my San Francisco radio program. Bill was not a believer in anthropogenic climate change.

The 2024 forecast from CSU calls for 23 “named storms,” in the Atlantic Basin (Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, etc.). Named storms include both tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) and hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph). The seasonal average number of named storms is 14.

The CSU forecast also calls for 11 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, whereas the average is 7. Of those 11 hurricanes, 5 are anticipated to be “major,” meaning a storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The average number of major hurricanes each year in that region is 3.

Indeed, while it really might be a big season for hurricanes and tropical storms, Dr. Frank put the CSU forecast into perspective.

“Hurricanes follow a multi-decadal cycle of about 60-years that cannot be linked to global warming. We are currently in a very active phase of a natural cycle. Not a surprise.”

As for the warmer ocean temperatures that the NPR reporter was attempting to link to climate change, Dr. Frank says such phenomena are not unusual. Keep in mind, hurricanes generally form near the equator and require a water temperature of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.5 Celsius) to get their engines going.  While it’s true that ocean temperatures are trending upward, according to Dr. Frank, “Ocean temperatures also follow a multi-decadal cycle of 30-years cold and 30-years warm. We’re currently in a warm cycle than has nothing to do with fossil fuels.”

Dr. Frank also pointed out another important factor that is missing from the climate change narrative. Technology has allowed meteorologists to almost instantly determine when a storm reaches the sustained wind threshold required to garner a name. “We are now naming storms we would have never named before. In the old days if we suspected the birth of a tropical storm we would have to wait for a ship or airplane to pass by and provide us with the data to confirm it. Many times, we were too late.

“And don’t forget this, Brian,” Dr. Frank reminded me. “Hurricanes are a necessary component of the atmosphere, transporting warm air from the equator towards the poles. And, of course, they can be deadly. The Galveston hurricane in 1900 claimed at least 6,000 lives.”

Can’t blame that on carbon dioxide emissions.

 Brian Sussman is a meteorologist, author, and host of the Brian Sussman Show Podcast

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